As Calgary enters 2025, its housing market continues to show resilience, supported by strong economic and population growth. Despite challenges like slowing migration and increased competition from new construction, the forecast anticipates a healthy and dynamic market. Here’s a breakdown of what’s in store for Calgary’s housing sector in 2025

1. Housing Market Overview

The Calgary housing market is set to remain robust in 2025, with forecasted sales exceeding 26,000 units—20% above long-term trends. Key drivers include easing lending rates, improved supply options, and consistent population and employment growth. However, some factors may temper growth:

• Slowing interprovincial and international migration.
• Increased competition from record-high new home construction.
• Heightened economic uncertainty, including potential U.S. tariffs.

The market is expected to stabilize, with a projected price growth of 3%, reflecting more balanced conditions after years of rapid escalation.

2. Economic Drivers and Risks

Calgary’s economic growth remains a cornerstone of housing demand:

• Alberta’s energy sector continues to thrive, bolstered by the TMX pipeline and favorable oil prices.
• Emerging industries like alternative energy, carbon capture, and AI are set to expand, diversifying the economy.
• Population growth, though slowing, remains strong, driven by interprovincial and international migration.

Risks to Watch:

• Potential U.S. tariffs could disrupt Alberta’s economy, dampening housing demand.
• A federal election and energy policy shifts might impact investment and consumer confidence.

3. Detached Homes: Growth and Challenges

Detached homes will continue to dominate the market, supported by:

• Easing lending rates and improved inventory above $600,000.
• Slower migration rates impacting higher-priced segments.

Sales are projected to align with historical trends, while price growth moderates to 3%. Lower-priced homes in desirable communities may see stronger price appreciation.

4. Semi-Detached and Row Homes: Affordable Alternatives

As affordability remains a concern, semi-detached and row homes are poised for steady growth:

• Semi-detached homes saw a 5% sales increase in 2024 and are expected to grow further in 2025.
• Row homes, driven by affordability-focused districts like the North East, will see strong demand, though price growth may slow due to increased inventory.

Both segments are expected to experience moderate price growth, supported by easing lending rates and new construction.

5. Apartments: Balancing Supply and Demand

The apartment market faced mixed conditions in 2024:

• Sales declined by nearly 4%, with higher-priced units performing better than lower-priced ones.
• Price growth reached 15%, driven by limited inventory in affordable segments.

In 2025, increased rental and new home supply is expected to weigh on apartment prices, with modest price growth of under 2%. Market conditions will vary by location and price range, favoring balanced dynamics.

6. Rental Market Insights

The rental market experienced significant growth in 2024, with over 5,500 purpose-built rental units added. This influx:

• Raised vacancy rates, particularly in downtown Calgary.
• Eased pressure on rental prices, a trend expected to continue in 2025.

Slower international migration is anticipated to reduce rental demand, further improving availability and stabilizing rates.

7. Surrounding Areas: Diverse Market Trends

Surrounding areas like Airdrie, Cochrane, and Okotoks offer unique opportunities and challenges:

• Airdrie: Population growth drove strong demand, with a 9% increase in detached home prices.
• Cochrane: Tight market conditions pushed detached prices up by 9%.
• Okotoks: Limited inventory maintained seller’s market conditions, with prices rising 8%.
• Chestermere: Higher-density housing gained traction, leading to record sales and price growth.

These markets, while influenced by Calgary’s trends, reflect localized dynamics shaped by affordability and new construction.

8. Key Takeaways for 2025

• Balanced Market Conditions: As supply increases and migration slows, Calgary’s housing market is shifting toward stability.
• Opportunities for Buyers: Easing lending rates and improved inventory create favorable conditions for first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade.
• Localized Growth: Neighborhood-specific trends will shape price movements, with affordability and supply playing crucial roles.

Calgary’s housing market in 2025 promises a dynamic year with opportunities for buyers, sellers, and investors alike. By understanding the trends and factors influencing the market, you can navigate these changes and make informed decisions. If you’re looking to buy or sell your home, contact Keypoint Realty today!